The Diplomatic Times Review

October 27, 2005

Despite Israel's Desires, Iran Won't be Expelled From the U.N.

Shimon Peres, Israel's vice prime minister, wants Iran expelled from the United Stations over Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's purported contention that Israel should be "wiped off the map."

Well, folks, it's not going to happen. Russia or China would likely use their Security Council veto to stop such a move.Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:25 AM | Comments (0)

October 26, 2005

Will Russia Veto Attempts to Impose Sanctions on Syria?

RIA Novosti of Russia reported October 26, 2005 from Israel that, "Russia is against imposing sanctions on Syria in connection with an investigation into the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the Foreign Ministry said Wednesday," October 26.

"Russia will do everything necessary to prevent sanctions being imposed," the ministry's official spokesman, Mikhail Kamynin, was quoted as saying.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:22 AM | Comments (0)

Be Careful About What You Wish For in Syria

Adib Farha, a political analyst and former adviser to Lebanon's finance minister, argues in an October 26, 2005 article in The Globe and Mail of Toronto that:

We should continue to use every peaceful means to steer the Syrian leadership toward changing its evil ways. The goal should be behavioral change, not regime change. A premature fall of the Assad regime could "open up the gates of hell" (to borrow a phrase the Syrian Prime Minister recently used to threaten the U.S.), and everyone would be in deep trouble.

"So, a word of caution to cheerleaders for immediate regime change," warned Mr. Farha, who now lives in the United States: "Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it."

For more, please read "Mind what you wish for in Syria.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:16 AM | Comments (0)

October 24, 2005

Jumblatt Urges Bashar al-Asad to Cooperate on Hariri Probe

Ya Libnan (O Lebanon) reported October 23, 2005 that, Lebanese "political leader Walid Jumblatt urged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday [October 23] to cooperate with the U.N. investigation into Rafik Hariri's assassination, saying it was necessary to establish the truth." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 09:39 PM | Comments (0)

Demand that Lebanon's Lahoud Resign Intensifies

Leila Hatoum, staff writer for The Daily Star of Lebanon, reported October 25, 2005 that, "Pressures intensified Monday [ October 24] for Lebanese President Emile Lahoud to resign, after the UN report named his top four security chiefs as suspects in the killing of former premier Rafik Hariri."

For more, please see "Campaign for Lahoud to resign intensifies after Mehlis report."

Posted by Munir Umrani at 09:33 PM | Comments (0)

The Deltev Mehlis' Report

On October 22, 2005, The Daily Star of Lebanon published the Deltev Mehlis' report into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri for the benefit of its readers. Here are the sections excised from the report released to the public.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 09:27 PM | Comments (0)

Is Syria is being Set Up to Fail?

On October 23, Joshua Landis at Syria Comment. Com published what he calls "a most extraordinary letter from Syria's Ambassador in Washington Imad Mustapha to Congresswoman Sue Kelly," which has come into his possession. He wrote:

It explains how the American Administration has been stonewalling Syrian cooperation on a host of issues. It explains how Syria is being set up to fail so that the US can isolate it and carry out a process of regime-change at the expense of Iraqi stability and the lives of American soldiers and Iraqi civilians. It explains how the US administration's policy of forcing regime change in Syria is trumping the need to save lives in Iraq.

Mr. Landis, an assistant professor of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, who is currently living and studying in Syria on a Fulbright scholarship, added:"

I also have the letter written by Congresswoman Sue Kelly, and signed by 100 fellow congressmen, which was originally sent to Ambassador Mustapha on Sept. 30, 2005 and which elicited this reply.

He said the letter "is short and reiterates the usual administration complaints about the lack of Syrian cooperation with the war on terror and effort to stabilize Iraq."

For more, please read "Syria is being Set Up to Fail: A Leaked Letter from Washington."

Posted by Munir Umrani at 08:33 PM | Comments (0)

A Look at 'The Jews of Syria'

Fulbright Scholar Joshua Landis, proprietor of Syria Comment. Com, today published an article by Robert Tuttle headlined "The Jews of Syria." I recommend it.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 08:14 PM | Comments (0)

October 21, 2005

AlJazeera: Syria rejects UN report

"Syria has rejected a UN investigation into the murder of a former Lebanese premier, calling it politically biased," reports Aljazeera.

"It is a political statement against Syria based on allegations by witnesses known for their hostility to Syria," Mehdi Dakhlallah, Syria's information minister, told Aljazeera in the first official reaction from Damascus to the report," the publication said. Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:37 AM | Comments (0)

Ya Libnan: Mehlis Report Calls for No Arrests at This Stage

"Detlev Mehlis handed over his report to UN Secretary General [Kofi] Annan yesterday [October 20, 2005]," Ya Libnan (O Lebanon) told its readers today. "Even though it did not call for the arrest of any Syrians at this stage it was highly critical of the Syrian government." The publication added:

It accused Syrian authorities of trying to mislead the investigation and directly accused Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa of lying in a letter sent to Mehlis' commission.The investigation into the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon is focusing on Assef Shawkat, the powerful brother-in-law of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria as the main suspect, a diplomat with intimate knowledge of the inquiry said Thursday [October 20, 2005]. He described Shawkat as " the ringleader."

Ya Libnan said, "Shawkat is considered the second most powerful man in Syria and has been seen as a likely candidate to take over the country if the embattled Mr. Assad was removed from office." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:32 AM | Comments (0)

Lebanon Prepares for Trouble After UN Report's on Hariri is Released

The Daily Star of Lebanon reported today that, "As the Lebanese Army deployed throughout Beirut in anticipation of the UN report into former Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination, the government decided to suspend all gun licenses. Meanwhile, some citizens set up neighborhood watch groups to keep an eye out for potential bombers. Many believe the report will implicate Syria, and expect an escalation of violence in the country to follow." Read more here.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:37 AM | Comments (0)

Mehlis' Report: Top Syrian Security officials Approved Hariri's Murder

Mayssam Zaaroura, Majdoline Hatoum and Leila Hatoum, staff writers for The Daily Star of Lebanon, reported today from Beirut and New York that:

Chief Investigator Detlev Mehlis said the decision to assassinate former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri could not have been taken without the approval top Syrian security officials and further organized with the counterparts in the Lebanese security services. Mehlis, who presented his report to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on Thursday, said in his report on the investigations his team conducted since June 16, 2005, that witness statements who didn't approach the authorities for lack of confidence told the commission that Syria approved the killing of Hariri.

He also noted that the Commissions investigation has confirmed what many in Lebanon have long asserted, that senior Syrian intelligence officials had a powerful day-to-day and overall strategic influence on the governance of Lebanon.The Daily Star reporters said, "In his conclusion Mehlis wrote that the structure and organization of the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services in Lebanon at the time of the blast, including protocols for reporting, shows a pervasive impact on everyday life in Lebanon."

That was obvious to anyone who has followed Syrian and Lebanese politics over the years.We see the same practice in Iraq, where the U.S. controls Iraq's intelligence service. Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:30 AM | Comments (0)

October 19, 2005

Iran Still Looking for Missing Diplomats

"Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said the ministry will do its utmost to find the whereabouts of the Iranian diplomats long missing in Lebanon," reports Iran Mania.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:44 AM | Comments (0)

Iran Preparing for Bird Flu Outbreak

"Iran has banned bird hunting and is stocking up on flu vaccines as it braces for what officials acknowledge is a highly likely outbreak of bird flu which has already arrived at its borders," according to Reuters.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:40 AM | Comments (0)

October 14, 2005

Ghazi Kenaan Buried in Syria

Former Syrian Intelligence Minister Ghazi Kenaan was laid to rest today in a low key funeral, according to The Daily Star of Lebanon.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:38 AM | Comments (0)

More Questions About Ghazi Kanaan's Death

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com stated in an October 13, 2005 post: "It is becoming clearer that Ghazi Kanaan's death was not related to the Mehlis report or Lebanon-Syria relations, as I speculated yesterday. One good reporter I heard from today said they are "hearing Kanaan was tried in-camera and executed."

It sounds plausible to me. Here's more.

Editor's Note: The links above were not in the original report.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:33 AM | Comments (0)

October 13, 2005

How Arab News Reported Ghazi Kanaan's Alleged Suicide

"People all over the Arab world were shocked yesterday after hearing the news that Syrian Interior Minister Ghazi Kanaan, who headed his country's military intelligence in Lebanon for two decades, had committed suicide," according to Arab News' Dahi Hassan & Barbara Ferguson. Here's their report.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:35 AM | Comments (0)

Helena Cobban Looks at 'Suicide' and Uncertainty' in Syria

Helena Cobban at Just world News, who lived and worked in the Middle East as a journalist for several years, commented on the death former Syrian Interior Minister Brigadier General Ghazi Kenaan in an article headlined "Syria: 'suicide' and uncertainty." Her question: Is this suicide?" is valid in the wake the bombings and assassinations in Lebanon in recent months.

Mr. Kenaan served in Lebanon for more than 20-years.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:22 AM | Comments (0)

Ghazi Kanaan's Death: Was it Suicide? Was it Murder?

Could Syrian Interior Minister Brigadier General Ghazi Kenaan "have been assassinated in order to prevent him from challenging [Syrian President Bashar [al-Assad? We may never know, but it is possible.

That's one of the many questions that Syria Comment.com proprietor Joshua Landis, who is in Syria on a Fulbright Scholarship, asked in an October 12, 2005 post headlined "Ghazi Kanaan - the Most Senior Alawi - Suicide? Or was it Murder?"

According to the Syrian Arab News Agency,"Interior Minister Brigadier General Ghazi Kenaan committed suicide in his office before noon [October 12, 2005]. Authorities are carrying out the necessary investigation into the incident."

I highly recommend Landis' analysis.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:36 AM | Comments (0)

October 11, 2005

Landis: 'What is American Planning for Syria?'

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com asks: "What is American Planning for Syria?" He's attempts to provide an answer in three articles.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:41 AM | Comments (0)

September 29, 2005

Mideast Wire: English-Language Digest of the Arabic Press

"For a general view of what the Arabic newspapers are saying - as well as some of the Farsi newspapers in Iran - the most useful and affordable service is the recently-launched Mideast Wire, which monitors more than 50 publications and provides extracts from 30-40 news items and opinion articles every day," according to the Guardian Unlimited's Brian Whitaker.

"It's not free," he added, "but at $87 (£50) a year, the basic-rate subscription is quite modest considering the amount of copy supplied - around 10,000 words a day." For more, please see "Language Matters."

Posted by Munir Umrani at 05:46 AM | Comments (0)

September 26, 2005

Lebanese Protest Attempt to Murder May Chidiac

Ya Libnan (O Lebanon) reported today that, "Like on March 14th [2005, when Lebanese took to the streets to demand that Syria end its 29-year occupation of Lebanon], the Lebanese were united once again. This time Lebanese of all faiths were protesting against the attempted murder of the prominent TV Anchor, May Chidiac." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 10:45 PM | Comments (0)

Lebanese Journalist May Chidiac Targeted for Assassination

Here are photographs and an article on Lebanese television journalist May Chidiac, whose Range Rover was bombed September 25, 2005, in Lebanon "in a Christian area, in the Jounieh/Maameltein area near the Casino Du Liban, northeast of Beirut." She survived. According to Ya Lebanon (O Lebanon), "The bomb was placed under the drivers seat.... and triggered to explode through the ignition at around 6pm."

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:34 AM | Comments (0)

September 13, 2005

'How to Solve Syria's Border Problem with Iraq'

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.com has an insightful article sent to him "by Abdullah Taa'i, a resident of Abu Kamal, a large Syrian town situated on the Eurphrates on the border with Iraq and on the main highway connecting the Governorate of Deir az-Zur to eastern Iraq."

The writer, whose article is headlined "How to Solve Syria's Border Problem with Iraq, "explains why many residents of the town supports the Iraqi resistance and the Sunni tribes in Iraq.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 05:59 AM | Comments (0)

August 31, 2005

Der Spiegel's Interview With Bashar al-Assad

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com has posted an interview that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gave top the German news magazine Der Spiegel. It's an informative interview.

Also see the Der Spiegel version. The reader comments posted at Syria Comment. Com are quite interesting.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:43 AM | Comments (0)

The Roundup of Suspects in Hariri Murder Continues in Lebanon

According to Ya Libnan (O Lebanon), "Nine pro Syrian suspects were rounded up in daybreak house raids in Beirut Tuesday [August 30, 2005] for interrogation by an international investigating committee trying to identify former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassins." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:30 AM | Comments (0)

Some Lebanese Officials Still Being Questioned in Hariri's Murder

The BBC reported today that Lebanon has freed Nasser Qandil, a former cabinet minister, who was "questioned about the killing of ex-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri," but Major General Jamil al-Sayyad, former head of General Security; Major General Ali Hajj, former chief of police Brigadier General Raymond Azar; and former military intelligence chief Mustafa Hamdan and Republican Guard Commander are still being questioned by U.N. investigators.

Here's more of the BBC report.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:24 AM | Comments (0)

August 30, 2005

Ya Libnan: 'Finally Lebanon Arrests Pro-Syrian Security Officials

Ya Libnan (O Lebanon), using its own sources and Reuters, reported August 30, 2005 that, "Jamil al-Sayyed, the Director-General of Lebanon's General Security Directorate, is widely considered to be the most powerful (Lebanese) political figure in Lebanon."

"Working in conjunction with the head of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon, Maj. Gen. Ghazi Kanaan, Sayyed is directly or indirectly responsible for most illegal arrests and "disappearances" that took place in the country," the publication said, adding. "Sayyed resigned one day before Syria ended its military presence in Lebanon in April [2005]." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:28 AM | Comments (0)

Former Lebanese Security Chiefs Arrested in Hariri Assassination

Lebanon's "former general security chief Jamil al-Sayed, ex-military intelligence boss Raymond Azar and former internal security head Ali al-Hage" have been arrested in the February 14, 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, according to Agence France Presse and other news outlets. Here's more.

Updates will come later.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:16 AM | Comments (0)

August 19, 2005

U.S. Navy Ships Leave Aqaba After Being Fired On

Two U.S. Navy ships,the USS Ashland and the USS Kearsarge, left the Jordanian port of Aqaba on August 19, 2005 after three rockets were reportedly fired at the ships.

According to the Associated Press (AP), the ships had been docked in Aqaba since August 13, 2005, "while they were participating in exercises with the Jordanian military." The ships are part of the U.S. 5th Fleet headquarted at Manama, Bahrain.

"They missed their targets and hit a warehouse and a hospital, killing a Jordanian soldier, and striking the Israeli port of Eilat," according to Al-Jazeera and other publications

The Abdullah Azzam Brigades "claimed responsibility in an Internet statement," according to the AP.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:37 AM | Comments (0)

August 07, 2005

'They're Just Like the peace activists...I've Reported On'

In August 7, 2005 "Correspondents Report" dispatch for ABC Radio National of Australia, Matt Brown noted that,

The Gaza disengagement plan has divided the nation and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Likud party.And the protests against it are a decent case study of how the language and tactics of protest transcend the agendas of those who employ them.The settlers, who will be removed from their homes, complain that the state intelligence service has been sending provocateurs to infiltrate their ranks and stir up trouble.Those protesting against disengagement link arms, they chant slogans, they photograph journalists.

In this way," he added, "they're just like the peace activists, unionists and anarchists I've reported on in Australia.But this is a group of people the Israeli newspapers call right-wingers even right-wing extremists." Here's a transcript.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 09:02 AM | Comments (0)

August 06, 2005

Who Will Bury Eden Natan-Zada?

The Voice of America (VOA) reported August 6, 2005 that, "no one wants to take responsibility for burying" Eden Natan-Zada, 19, the Israeli soldier who murdered four Israeli Arabs on a bus August 4, 2005.

He was " labeled a "bloodthirsty terrorist" by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, the VOA noted, adding:."The army, the young man's home town and the settlement where he stayed are all refusing to hold a funeral. The parents plan to appeal to Israel's Supreme Court so their son can be laid to rest."

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:35 PM | Comments (0)

August 01, 2005

What is the Egypt, Algeria Dispute About?

ArabicNews.Com reported August 1, 2005 that, "The secretary general of the Arab league (AL), Amr Moussa, admitted that there are differences between Egypt and Algeria over the urgent Arab summit due to be held on Wednesday [August 3, 2005] in Sharm el-Sheikh." It has been postponed due to the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia.

On July 28, 2005, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stated in a televised address:

I call for an extraordinary Arab summit on Wednesday 3 August in Sharm al-Shaikh, which will be preceded by a meeting of Arab foreign ministers ... with a view to reviewing the situation in the Arab world.

I am fully confident that this coming extraordinary summit will be capable of crystallizing a strong Arab position that reflects the determination of the Arab states and peoples to overcome the current challenges, and to achieve the peace and stability that all Arabs long for.

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is the current president for the Arab League. When Mr. Mubarak called the meeting, it apparently irking the Algerians, who said they would not handle the logistics of such a meeting since the Egyptians called it. Here's more on the dispute.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 11:30 PM | Comments (0)

July 23, 2005

Will Sharon Use Duvdevan Unit Against Gaza Settlers?

Uzi Mahnaimi, in a July 24, 2005 dispatch from Jerusalem for The Times Online of London, reported that, "Israeli Special forces are prepared to shoot to kill Jewish settlers if they come under fire during next months controversial evacuation of 22 settlements in the Gaza Strip."

He said, "Members of Israel's feared Duvdevan (Cherry) commando unit, who have concentrated on hunting Palestinian militants on the West Bank, are training for the evacuation at a dummy settlement in a remote desert location. The commandos, who have killed hundreds of Palestinian militants over the years, are now being told to be ready to open fire on Israelis but only in response to an attack on fellow soldiers," Mr. Mahnaimi added.

For more, see "Israeli troops ready to open fire on settlers."

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 19, 2005

Will Rice Pressure Sharon or Abbas On Visit To Israel

The Boston Globe opined July 19, 2005 that, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's "visit to Israel this week reflects a welcome, if belated, understanding that ominous shadows are falling across the Israeli disengagement from Gaza that is scheduled to begin in a month. The two sides need help badly, not only to coordinate security arrangements and economic plans but also to overcome the tremendous internal stresses affecting both the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas and the Israeli government of Ariel Sharon," the paper said, adding:

Rice will have to be tough with both sides yet understanding of their domestic pressures. She must make it clear that the United States will not stand for renewed large-scale violence from either camp. At the same time, she needs to muster a certain amount of subtlety in calibrating the political effects of US pressure on both Abbas and Sharon.

The paper need not worry. The Bush administration is not going to put much pressure on Mr. Sharon. If anything, they will pressure Mr. Abbas who is caught between a rock and a hard place. That is between Israel, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. See "Rice's job in Gaza" for the entire editorial.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:03 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 18, 2005

Some Israeli Soldiers Balking At Removing Jewish Settlers From Gaza

"The Israeli army is searching for two of its solders who deserted after refusing to carry out orders to stop Israelis entering Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip," Mark Willacy, Middle East correspondent for ABC Online of Australia reported July 18, 2005. He said, "At least seven other soldiers also disobeyed orders but did not desert." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Sharon's Warning to Palestinians, Jewish Protesters

John Murphy of the Baltimore Sun's foreign staff said, "Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon found himself battling on two fronts yesterday, issuing stern warnings to Palestinian militants who have launched attacks on Israelis and to Jewish protesters opposed to his plan to evacuate settlements in the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

July 17, 2005

Arab Media Tells Palestinians To Get Their House In Order

BBC Monitoring, which "selects and translates news from radio, television, press, news agencies and the Internet from 150 countries in more than 70 languages," selected some Arab newspapers that have warned, "the Palestinians to put their own house in order after clashes in Gaza late last week between Palestinian Authority security forces and members of the Hamas militant organization," according to the BBC.

Two bystanders were killed and 20 others wounded, the BBC noted. Here's a link to Arab opinion on the issue.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 03:15 PM | Comments (0)

Abbas Is Between A Rock And A Hard Place

The Palestinian Media Center said July 17, 2005 that,

"On the backdrop of an imminent Israeli large-scale ground offensive against the Gaza Strip, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas held the Israeli government fully responsible for the consequences of its policy, urged national unity on the basis of the Cairo Declaration and the truce with Israel, reconfirmed that attacks against Israeli targets would not be tolerated, and reiterated that the Palestinian National authority (PNA) is the sole Palestinian authority in the occupied territories."

Mr. Abbas is between and rock and a hard place. He can't control Hamas and Islamic Jihad and he definitely has no influence on Israel, who seems to use overwhelming force at every provocation. For more, see "Abbas Blames Israel, Urges National Unity.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 02:55 PM | Comments (0)

June 22, 2005

Who's The Next Target In Lebanon?

Al-Jazeera.Net's June 22, 2005 article headlined "Arrests follow Beirut assassination" has interesting speculation about who could be behind the June 21, 2005 assassination of Lebanese Democratic Movement leader George Hawi. The question now is: Who's next?

Posted by Munir Umrani at 02:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

What If Syria Is Not Behind Assassinations In Lebanon?

Ya Libnan reported June 21, 2005 that," The United Sates and United Nations served a joint ultimatum to [Syrian] President [Bashar] Assad just last week, that Syria would be taken to 'harsh international reckoning' if a single other political assassination occurs in Lebanon."

U.N. envoy Terje Roed-Larsen delivered the message personally to President Assad when they meet in Damascus on June 12," the publication said. "It's an ultimatum the deadline of which is any new political assassination in Lebanon."

Ya Libnan noted that, "Washington accused Syria last week of "targeting key Lebanese public figures, various political and religious persuasions for assassination." Syria responded, claiming to be "above the use of threats, assassinations and bombing," according to the Syrian Information Ministry."

The June 21, 2005 assassination of Lebanese Democratic Movement leader George Hawi will tell whether the U.S. and the U.N. will carry out their threats, which leads to two question:

What if Syria is not behind this and other assassinations in Lebanon? Would the U.S. and the U.N. admit it?

I don't have answers, just questions. See "Anti-Syrian political leader assassinated in Lebanon" for more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 01:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 21, 2005

Two Syrian Imams On Democracy In Syria

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com has a worth reading post headlined "Imams Hussainy and Habash on Democracy in Syria." I recommend it.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 05:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Condoleeza Rice And The Muslim Brotherhood

The Guardian Unlimited's Simon Tisdall said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice's "silence on the Muslim Brotherhood's lack of free choices [in Egypt] reflected the strong official Egyptian resistance to legalizing the organization. "

"But it also illustrated Washington's larger dilemma in calling for greater Arab democracy while opposing Islamic groups such as Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in Lebanon with proven electoral appeal," he wrote in a June 21, 2005 article. Ms. Rice was in Cairo on June 20, 2005.

Question: If Egypt and other U.S. allies in the Middle East embrace democracy, where will the U.S. outsource its torture of Muslim prisoners of war? Now that I think of it, that shouldn't be a problem. Reports out of Abu Ghraib, Iraq; Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, indicate that we do a good job of torture ourselves.

For more of Mr. Tisdall's article, see "Democracy's advance in Egypt brings dilemma for US." Also see this State Department Transcript of Ms. Rice's June 20, 2005 remarks at the American University in Cairo.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 04:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 18, 2005

Hamidi On Why Syrians Are Turning To Islam

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com notes in a June 18, 2005 post that, " Ibrahim Hamidi has a fantastic article in al-Hayat explaining the many reasons that Syrians are turning to Islam." He added:

They are accepting the principle that "Islam is the Solution." Having been ruled by secular regimes for 50 years, Syrians have only seen Muslims growing weaker. They don't have jobs, American and Israel are occupying more Arab land than ever, and the future is dark. Secular nationalism has failed. No alternatives are allowed in Syria. America and the West are seen as the enemies. What is left for the average Syrian but to turn toward Islam?Hamidi describes how most of the Damascus book stores that once sold Russian books about communism and materialism have been converted into Islamic bookstores, especially the store across the street from the Russian Cultural Center!

Mr. Landis said Mr. Mr. Hamidi "also gives the numbers on the growth of Islamic Institutes (600 new institutes for memorizing the Qur'an) and training centers. 72,751 families get assistance from Muslim charitable associations." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 08:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The Iranian Election

"Iran will hold the first runoff presidential election in its history between political veteran Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Tehran's hard-line mayor," Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 49, according to a report in Arab News, Saudi Arabia's English language daily.

This looks like democracy to me. Even down to losers saying the voting was rigged. Sounds familiar? Here's more. Also see "Polls rigged say reformists."

Posted by Munir Umrani at 07:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 17, 2005

Three Scenarios For Outcome of Iran's Election

A Cihan News Agency (CNA) report published in Zaman Online offers three different scenarios for the outcome of Iran's presidential election:

According to the first scenario, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and one of the conservative candidates will run in the second round. If this is the case, conservative candidates might unite against Rafsanjani it is noted. The withdrawal of conservative Muhsin Rezai is also seen as a development in this direction.

According to the second scenario, if conservative electors, who are expected to boycott the elections, cast their votes, Muin will win the first round. An expected turnout for Muin's victory in the first round is envisioned as around 65 percent. Turnout was 67 percent in 2001 elections. Iranian Ministry of Internal Affairs announced on June 15 that it expected around 55 percent this time.

According to the third scenario, reformists will predominate and prevent conservatives to win the presidency in a second round, which will turn into a "bipolar" election between reformist and conservative wings. Mohammed Reza Khatami, leader of the reformist opposition in Iran says that winning such an election would be easier for them. CNA said "Rafsanjani raised speculation that he was targeting young voters with his more moderate rhetoric during campaigning and women voters, who won several rights during Khatami's period, will support Rafsanjani due to concerns that they could "lose their freedom". Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:29 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Rafsanjani Expected To Win Iranian Presidential Election

IslamOnLine.Net reported June 17, 2005 that, "Iranian voters flocked Friday, June 17, to polling stations to elect a new president for the Islamic Republic, with relative moderate and frontrunner Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani tipped to win the unusually tight polls."

Citing an Agence France Presse report, IslamOnLine.Net said "Polling stations set up in schools and mosques across the Islamic republic opened doors at 09:00 hours local time (0430 GMT) for some 46.7 million voters eligible to cast their ballots." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:14 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 16, 2005

Controversy Continues Over Syria's Influence In Lebanon

Ya Libnan observed in a June 16, 2005 article that, "The elections in Lebanon, as in many other countries, is a time when partisanship trumps everything else. Lebanon was once united, earlier this year in fact, when the country demanded to know "the truth" behind the assassination of leader Rafik Hariri," the publication noted, adding:

Four months later priorities have changed. While many Lebanese are still determined to seek the truth behind Hariri's murder, the elections have stalled the widespread support, particularly from rival political parties. Several weeks back, tragedy struck Beirut once again, as anti-Syrian journalist Samir Kassir was brutally murdered by yet another bomb.

Ya Libnan said "Many Lebanese feel Syria is responsible for both of these brutal assassinations. Unfortunately, many pro-Syrian politicians who were likely on their way out were revived through an alliance with Michel Aoun." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Hizbullah Supports Lahoud's Term Completion Plan

Leila Hatoum of The Daily Star of Lebanon reported June 16, 2005 that, "Hizbullah's Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem said his party supports President Emile Lahoud serving out the remainder of his term, despite opposition calls to cut short his mandate. Speaking during a news conference late last night, Qassem said Hizbullah "will not support calls to cut short Lahoud's presidential term," Ms. Hatoum wrote.

The Daily Star said Mr. Lahoud, "seen by the opposition as a pro-Syrian figure, had his six-year term extended for a further three years in 2004." Here's more.

Posted by Munir Umrani at 06:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

June 13, 2005

Will Aoun's Victory Complicate Lebanon's Political Landscape?

Reuters correspondent Nadim Ladki reports that Michel Aoun's victory in the June 12, 2005 Lebanese Parliamentary elections "could complicate the new political landscape in already highly factionalized Lebanon as it boosts the chances of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud staying in power."

The correspondent said Mr. Aoun "has questioned opposition demands for Lahoud to go."

Significantly, "Unofficial final results showed Aoun-backed candidates won 15 of 16 seats in Sunday's third round of the polls in the Maronite Christian heartland northeast of Beirut," Reuters said, noting that, "there was no Aoun-allied candidate for the last seat."

"General Michel Aoun has established an influence on the Christian arena unmatched" by any other political leader or party since the civil war," said the As-Safir newspaper, according to Reuters. See "Aoun's poll win gives him major voice in Lebanon" for more.

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Michel Aoun's Successful Political Comeback

"Lebanon's Michel Aoun, who only returned home last month after 15 years in exile, was poised for a remarkable political comeback last night according to preliminary results in the third round of elections," reports Nayla Assaf in a "Special" published in the June 13, 2005 edition of The Daily Star of Lebanon.

She said Mr. Aoun's "arch rival, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, conceded defeat last night in the most closely contested battle of this year's election. Lebanon's divided anti-Syrian opposition fought it out for almost half of the country's parliamentary seats. But Jumblatt again attacked Aoun, calling him a "small Syrian tool," she noted. Here's more.

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June 12, 2005

Reuters: Frustrated Lebanese Voters Put Clan First

Reuters correspondent Alaa Shahine, writing June 10, 2005, from Aley, Lebanon, made this observation: "Sectarian and tribal loyalties, and issues like the relationship with Syria, have long held the key to the 128-seat parliament, dwarfing calls to reform a stagnant job market and improve voters' living standards" in Lebanon."

"We have long been following our leaders like sheep," Anis Shmeit, a 73-year-old Druze told Reuters," he wrote. "No one questions them. They show us their faces in election time but never fulfil their promises, but people elect them because they are from the same sect."

"Such frustration is common among many Lebanese who complain of a double-digit unemployment rate and the government's inability to rein in a ballooning $34 billion public debt," Alaa Shahine noted.

This quote by Bilal Tarabay, a 28-year-old air-condition technician, probably sums up the sentiment of ordinary Lebanese: "I do not care if aliens or monkeys come to rule me. Lebanon has been dominated by the same lying politicians. Let whoever win, all I want is to afford living with dignity." I've heard similar sentiment in the United States over the years. Here's more.

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Ya Libnan: 'Did Aoun strike a deal with Syria?'

Ya Libnan reported June 11, 2005, that, "Ever since his return from exile, General [Michel] Aoun launched attack after attack against the opposition. Within one month he managed to divide the anti Syrian opposition, something the Syrians couldn't dream of achieving in years," the publication said. "Does Aoun have a deal with Syria to be Lebanon's next president ?" See "Did Aoun strike a deal with Syria?" for Ya Libnan's conclusion.

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Lebanon And Remnants of Syrian Control

Nora Boustany of the Washington Post Foreign Service says what's "at stake domestically [in Lebanon] is the new [128-seat] legislature's ability to dislodge remnants of Syrian control, after a 29-year military presence, from key institutions including the presidency. Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon this spring, but the country continues to wield considerable influence," she wrote
.
Rafik Khoury, a columnist with the Al Anwar daily newspaper, told The Post: "Syria is out of our geography, but not out of our politics or the region's geopolitics, The difference is that a year ago, we were on death row. Now our sentence has been reduced to a one or two-year prison term."

Ms. Boustany said, "also at stake will be the legislature's ability to maintain a fragile national unity movement and push through political and economic reform." See "A Window of Opportunity for Lebanon's Anti-Syria Coalition" for more of her analysis.

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Lebanon's Elections Spawn Interesting Alliances

New York Times reporter John Kifner, in a June 12, 2005 dispatch on Lebanon's parliamentary elections, contends that, "Lebanese politics, dominated here for decades by neighboring Syria, are always religious and tribal."

"But this election is developing into a tale of intrigue tangled even by Levantine standards, a quintessentially Lebanese mélange of bloodshed, betrayal and a raven-haired beauty," he opined. The third phase of the month-long election were held June 12, 2005 in central and eastern Lebanon.

"Indeed," he added, "the campaign is now so convoluted that General Michel Aoun, the anti-Syrian nationalist who returned from 15 years in exile, has allied himself with politicians widely regarded as Syrian vassals. And in a breathtakingly odd moment the other night, Sheik Hassan Nasrullah, the Hezbollah leader whose Shiite guerrillas drove Israel out of southern Lebanon, exhorted his followers to vote for candidates of the outlawed Christian militia, the Lebanese Forces, invoking the name of its assassinated leader, Bashir Gemayel, who cooperated with the Israelis' invasion in 1982 and was elected president behind their tanks."

See "Lebanese Rivals Face Off in a Crucial Stage in Elections" for more about the various alliances.

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Tehran Times: Political Outlook In Lebanon Is 'Still Ambiguous'

Hassan Hanizadeh of Tehran Times.Com notes that "the third phase of parliamentary elections in Lebanon was held on Sunday [June 12, 2005] , although the political outlook for the country is still ambiguous."

"The constant interference of both regional and extra-regional powers in Lebanon's domestic affairs, with the goal of influencing the parliamentary election, as well as the current disputes between the country's Christian groups over how to hold the elections have made political analysts quite worried about the future of Lebanon," he wrote. See "Foreign meddling in Lebanese election" for more.

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Lebanon Enters Third Phase of Voting

"Voters are heading into polling stations in central and eastern Lebanon to decide nearly half the legislative seats, in the third stage of staggered parliamentary elections," according to Al-Jazeera.Net. The publication said, "a total of 1.25 million people are eligible to vote in the Mount Lebanon and eastern Bekaa Valley regions on Sunday [June 12, 2005] in the penultimate stage of Lebanon's first national election without the presence of Syrian troops for three decades." Here's more.

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June 11, 2005

Syria Denies Charge That It Has Agents in Lebanon

Leila Hatoum has a June 11, 2005 article in The Daily Star of Lebanon that captures the reaction of Fayssal Moqdad, Syria's ambassador to the UN, to the Bush Administration's claim that Syrian intelligence agents are reportedly still in Lebanon. Some observers in the Administration say Syria has drawn up a list of Lebanese politicians to be assassinated by the Syrian agents.

"I am sure there are no Syrians there," Mr. Moqdad said. "Let them investigate themselves. If there were any intelligence personnel in Lebanon then they would be from France, the U.S. or Israel."

See "U.S. steps up attack on Syria over 'hit list.' " for more of Ms. Hatoum's analysis.

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June 10, 2005

Aoun Taking Precautions Against Assassination

Is former Lebanese prime minister Michel Aoun worried about his safety in the wake of the June 2, 2005 assassination in Beirut of opposition journalist Samir Kassir? "

"I am worried and I am taking some security measures to protect myself, and I am limiting my movements to the minimum necessary," the former general, who returned from exile in France on May 15, 2005, is quoted by the Associated Press (AP) as saying.

Mr. Aoun also said, according to the AP, that he was not aware of any intelligence agents still operating in Lebanon. The Bush Administration claims the Syrians have an opposition hit list. The Syrians deny the charge.

"I did not receive information on this subject and I believe that if they are here, then the body that is supposed to deter them is the Interior Ministry," he said. The ministry is headed by Minister Hassan Sabei . Here's more.

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Jumblatt: Some Syrian Agents Remain in Lebanon

The Associated Press reported June 10, 2005 that Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon's Druze community, charged June 9, 2005 that, "Officially, the Syrians have left" [Lebanon]. But on the intelligence level they stayed."

The AP said Mr. Jumblatt told local [Beirut] television that Syrian generals were seen in the "eastern Bekaa Valley and central Lebanon." The wire service also said Mr. Jumblatt "expressed fears of further assassinations after last week's bombing that killed the anti-Syrian journalist, Samir Kassir.

"Probably there is a decision - with the knowledge or without the knowledge of President Assad - to continue the assassinations," he said. Here's more.

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The 'Fog Of Iinstability Hovering Over Lebanon'

The Daily Star of Lebanon raises important issues about the current political situation in Lebanon in a June 11, 2005 editorial. The paper said "

The political atmosphere in Lebanon is clouded by reports that top officials in Washington believe Syria has developed a hit list targeting senior political figures in Lebanon. Washington's talk of a hit list could prove to be nothing more than another intelligence debacle, like the report that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction prior to the U.S.-led invasion. Are these reports of a hit list another intelligence mistake? Or is there some validity to this latest in a list of accusations aimed at Syria?

"Unfortunately," the paper added, "in the present circumstances, the Lebanese are equally damned whether or not the reports are true. If Washington is right, the outlook for stability in Lebanon is bleak at best. And if this is the case, one must pose questions immediately to Syrian President Bashar Assad and the Baath Party, who have recently made promising noises in the direction of reform and political liberalization: Are you really in control of the Syrian state? Are there intelligence operatives who, as rumor has it, have run amok and are now beyond the control of the your government? And what are you doing to correct this situation?"

These are important questions. I wonder how long we'll have to wait for answers. See "Time to clear the fog of instability hovering over Lebanon" for more of the editorial.

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June 08, 2005

Is Lebanon Reverting To Old Political Ways?

Gwynne Dyer, a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries," according to the Salt Lake Tribune, said in a June 7, 2005 commentary that,

For the past few months, we have been told by excitable Western journalists that the "cedar revolution" in Lebanon that drove Syrian troops from the country and the pro-Syrian government from office was the dawn of a new era in the Arab world. The old political class with its religious divisions and its corrupt deals was discredited, and a new, democratic Lebanon would emerge from the elections that began on May 29 and will end on June 19.

"That would be nice, but it's not true." she contends. See "Dyer: Lebanon is reverting to old political ways, not growing a democracy" for more.

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Syria Comment Looks at Coverage on Syria's Baath Party Conference

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment. Com has an nformative "Roundup of press coverage on Syria's Baath Conference, which is currently underway in Damascus. Here is a link to it. The coverage is quite impressive.

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June 06, 2005

A Perspective On The Elections in Lebanon

The Lebanese Political Journal, in a June 5, 2005 analysis of that day's election in Lebanon, said the "Amal/Hezbollah's list won. Many more people came to vote than in Beirut," The Journal said. "No surprises there.The election law pre-determined that."

"Perhaps there was a Syrian hand involved or maybe it was just politically pragmatic for Amal and Hezbollah to ally rather than compete head to head," the publication added. "However, we do see that Hezbollah supporters do not have Lebanon in mind when they are voting. This from the Daily Star:

"All the South came out today to send a clear message to the Americans that they embrace the [Hizbullah's] resistance weapons and that they are independent in their decision and not subservient to international resolutions," Sheikh Nabil Qaouk, Hizbullah's commander in southern Lebanon, told reporters shortly after voting began in the second phase of the current four-stage parliamentary elections."

The Journal said, "that's the equivalent of [U.S. Vice-President Dick] Cheney saying this summer that a vote against him is a vote in favor of attacks on America." See "Everything went as expected in the South, and Hezbollah's failures" for more analysis.

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Why Lebanese Opposition Postponed Anti-Lahoud Sit-in

Ya Libnan reported June 6, 2005, that, "The planned sit-in" in front of Lebanon's presidential Palace "by the Anti Syrian opposition" has been postponed until after the elections. It was to be held on Monday, June 6, 2005, to pressure president [Emile] Lahoud to resign," Ya Libnan reported. See "Anti Lahoud sit-in postponed till after elections" for more.

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Josh Landis Looks At 'The Syrian Opposition'

As usual, Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com has a good roundup of news and commentary on Syria. I highly recommend the article headlined "The Syrian Opposition."

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June 05, 2005

We Refuse To Kill Our Country Because a Great man Died

Leila Hatoum of The Daily Star of Lebanon made this telling observation about the Lebanese opposition's calls for a general strike on June 3, 2005, "in response to the assassination of Samir Kassir, on June 2, 2005. She wrote:

However, for the most part the public reaction to calls to shut the country down was cold and unexpected after near uniform obedience to previous calls during the past few months. Some schools were reported to have closed for the day and others held half-day schedules, however.
But it was business as usual in Beirut's central district Friday, as merchants and visitors expressed their disapproval of the boycott approach.

Mohammad, a young waiter working at one central districts cafe, expressed his dismay to the horrible crime, but disapproved of the call to strike," she added. He said:

The mighty opposition figures think they can control us and play with our destiny, but they don't feel with us. They have the money and power to last a boycott, but if we the poor stop working for a day, we would not find anything to eat at night.

Mohammed continued: "Yesterday, a great journalist died, just like many great Lebanese men before him, but we refuse to kill our country by closing it down to please the politicians' whims." See "Opposition's calls for strike fall on deaf ears."

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June 04, 2005

The Political Heat Intensifies on Lebanon's Lahoud

"Pressure is intensifying on President [Emile] Lahoud of Lebanon to step down after the country's Opposition blamed him for the [June 2, 2005] murder of a leading anti-Syrian journalist," and an-Nahar columnist, Samir Kassir, Nicholas Blanford of The Times of London reported June 4, 2005.

According to The Times, "Tens of thousands of protesters plan to converge on Monday [June 6, 2005] on the presidential palace in the hills overlooking Beirut to call on Mr Lahoud to resign." Mr. Lahoud has vowed not to step down. See "Murder backlash aimed at Lahoud" for more. .

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Ya Libnan: 'So who murdered Samir Kassir?'

Giselle Khoury, widow of Samir Kassir, the prominent Lebanese journalist assassinated on June 2, 2005, has "demanded a legitimate international investigation" of her husband's death, Ya Libnan reported June 4, 2005. The publication said "specialists from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation were present" in Beirut on Friday, June 3, 2005, "and experts from France are expected on the site on Saturday," June 4, 2005. See "So who murdered Samir Kassir?" for more.

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FBI Reportedly Investigating Samir Kassir's Assassination

Arab News.Com reported June 4, 2005, that news reports out of Beirut say agents from the U.S. Federal Bureau for Investigation (FBI) visited the site where prominent Lebanese journalist Samir Kassir was blown up and killed in al-Asharefya in east Beirut on June 2, 2005. Here's more.

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June 03, 2005

Joshua Landis' 'Baath Party Conference Watch'

"Will the [Syria] Baath Party Congress be the "great turning point" that President [Bashar] Asad said it would be in his March speech to the Parliament?" asks Syria Comment.Com's Joshua Landis in a June 2, 2005 post.

"That is the question all journalists must answer," he wrote. "The migration has begun, and the three Damascus hotels - the Sham Palace, the Meridien, and the Sheraton - have turned into aviaries for our blessed birds of information.The first round of stories will have to be all guesswork, local color and conjecture." Here's more of Mr. Landis' interesting look at what to expect.

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June 01, 2005

Joshua Landis Analyzes Lebanon's Elections

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com, who "just returned from several days in Beirut, where" he "gave a few lectures at AUB (American University in Beirut) on Syria, and "had time for a delicious dinner at Majana's with" his "favorite journalists: Michael Young of the Daily Star and Reason, Nicholas Blandford of the Christian Science Monitor, and Anthony Shadid or the Washington Post, has what appears to be a very informed commentary on the Lebanese elections. See "Lebanon's Elections - What's at Stake"?

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May 29, 2005

U.N. Begins Inquiry Into Hariri's Assassination

Detlev Mehlis, "senior public prosecutor in the office of the attorney-general in Berlin," Germany, is in Beirut, Lebanon, to start investigating the February 14, 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, according to Al-Jazeera.Net. Mr. Mehlis, who was named in early May 2005 "by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to head the international inquiry, told journalist after arriving In Beirut May 26, 2005: "I'm very glad to be here even if it is because of an incomprehensible tragedy, not only for you but for everyone in the civilized world." Here's more.

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Lebanese to Vote on Four Consecutive Sundays

Karine Raad, staff writer at The Daily Star of Lebanon, reports that, "Saad Hariri, son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, is expected to record an overwhelming victory in the first polls in Lebanon in three decades to take place without the presence of Syrian troops."

"The first round of parliamentary elections is set to kick off on Sunday [May 29, 2005] in Beirut, with voting spread regionally across four consecutive Sunday's, ending on June 19, [2005]," she noted. Here's more..

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May 25, 2005

Was Survey on Syrian Baathists a Hoax?

Joshua Landis raises the possibility that a survey on Baathist political opinion in Syria, which was described in a recent alseyassah article, was a hoax. See "The Survey of Baathist Political Tendencies: A Hoax?

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Landis: 'Syria Arrests Many and Stops Cooperating with US'

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com reported May 24, 2005 that, "the Syrian government has begun what seems a sweeping crack down on civil society leaders and opposition members" He added:

This is coordinated with cutting off CIA and intelligence cooperation with the United States. It comes at the time of the UN announcement that the United Nations team has verified the pullout of all Syrian troops and (as far as anyone can tell) intelligence officials from Lebanon.

Mr. Landis noted that Secretary General Kofi Annan told reporters on May 23, 2005: "We have verified all the withdrawal, including the border area." Read more here.

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Al-Jazeera: 'Lebanon Election Promises Sea Change'

Al-Jazeera: 'Free of the shackles of its powerful neighbour Syria, Lebanon votes on Sunday [May 29, 2005] in what is being hailed as the first truly free elections in three decades - with the anti-Damascus opposition set to win." Here's more.

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May 23, 2005

Palestinians, Israelis Differ on When Sharon, Abbas Will Meet

"Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said in Egypt May 21, 2005 that he will meet with the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on June 7,[2005] a date that has yet to be confirmed by Israel's government," the Palestine Media Center (PMC) reported May 22, 2005.

The PMC said both Mr. Abbas and Mr. Sharon "are expected in the United States this week for separate talks, Mr. Sharon on May 23 and Mr. Abbas on May 26. "

"I will meet Ariel Sharon on June 7," Mr. Abbas "told reporters in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh after meeting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak," accord to the PMC. "This is the proposed date so far," he added.

"However," the PMC reports, "Sharon's aides denied a date had been set or plans finalized. "The prime minister's bureau is interested in setting up such a meeting but no such meeting has been set for that date or any other date," David Baker, an official in Sharon's office, said.

"The Palestinian response to the Israeli denial was swift," according to the PMC. It added: "A senior Palestinian official traveling with Abbas told Reuters: "Sharon's office called to request a summit ... if Sharon's office wants another date, they should call us back."

The PMC said, "Abbas top security adviser Jibril al-Rajoub, also traveling with him in Egypt, told Reuters: "Meeting Sharon is not Abu Mazen's (Abbas's) life dream, but he will not object to such a meeting to pave the way for the resumption of the peace process and implementation of the roadmap."

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May 22, 2005

Iran Still Wants Iraq to Pay Reparations for 1980-1988 War

Iran said May 20, 2005 "that it will continue to call on Iraq to pay reparations for the eight-year war of 1980-1988, saying that the issue will be raised at the due time," according to Arabic News.Com. Here's more.

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May 15, 2005

Syria Reportedly Builds Up Military at Iraq Border

"Syria launched a military build up on its Iraq border after the American Army began a wide-ranging military operation in a region in Iraq near the Syrian border," according to Zaman Daily Online. Here's more.

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May 10, 2005

What If Hamas Wins Big in July 17 Elections?

Haaretz has a May 10, 2005 article that says, "The results of upcoming Palestinian Authority elections will not affect Israel's plans to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and portions of the West Bank, since the move is unilateral, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said Tuesday [May 10, 2005], responding to a remark by Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom. Mr. Shalom said on Monday [May 9, 2005] that if Hamas won in PA (Palestinian Authority) parliamentary elections set for July 17, Israel should rethink its plans for a withdrawal." Here's more.

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May 08, 2005

Farrah Hassen On 'The Obsession with Syria'

Farrah Hassen, associate producer of the 2004 documentary, "Syria: Between Iraq & And A Hard Place," contends in an article published at ZNet that:

The Bush Middle East foreign policy squad is shooting our country in its foot again, this time in Syria. After the release of a recent US report absolving the Damascus government from charges of accumulating WMDs and supporting terrorism, one would think that logic would dictate a rethinking of Syria policy. Instead, Washington officials have commenced another round of Syria bashing.

I think the article is interesting because of the observation Ms. Hassen makes about "the November 2003 Syrian Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act."." President George W. Bush renewed sanctions on May 5, 2005. Syrian Information Minister Mahdi Dakhlallah said "The main problem [with sanctions on Syria] is that the United States see Syria with an Israeli eye." Here's a link to Ms Hassen's article.

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May 07, 2005

Syria's Kurds Seen as a Potentially Powerful Political Force

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com reports that, "Ibrahim Hamidi, al-Hayat's bureau chief in Damascus, has written an excellent article on the growing force of the Kurds in Syrian politics. After Islamic fundamentalists, he considers the emerging Kurdish council to be one of the most effective political movements in Syria." Read more here.

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Michael Aoun Returns to Lebanon After Long Exile

Captain Ed at Captain's Quarters contends that, "The Cedar Revolution either gained a large amount of credibility or a giant headache this morning as exiled resistance leader Michel Aoun returned to Lebanon for the first time since Syria forced him to flee in 1990. Aoun wants to run for office in the newly-freed country, describing himself as the "grandfather, father and son" of the democracy movement," Captain Ed wrote. Read more here.

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Who Will Be Iran's Next President?

Bill Samii, "regional analysis coordinator with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) Online and editor of the "RFE/RL Iran Report." takes a look at Iranian politics in an article reprinted in the May 7, 2005 edition of Asia Times Online. He argues that, "Iran's next president will play a key role in shaping the country's domestic political climate as well as its relationship with the rest of the world. Will incumbent Hojatoleslam Mohammad Khatami's successor be a conservative isolationist? A conservative who favors some liberalization of foreign policy while loosening the social reins? Or will the next president be a reformer eager to ease social restrictions and accelerate Iranian involvement with the rest of the world?" he asks.Here's Mr. Samii's long but interesting article.

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May 04, 2005

Syria Comment. Com Sees an Uprising in Syria's Baath Party

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com says "an uprising is taking shape within the Damascus [Syria] branch of the Baath Party. A petition is being circulated among Baath members protesting the undemocratic nature of recent party elections," he said in a May 3, 2005 post. "Even cynics had hoped that 10% of the leadership would be new. What happened? Not one new candidate won!" Here's a link to Landis' post.

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May 03, 2005

Plans for an Israel University in the West Bank Condemned

The Palestinian Authority has comdemned the project establishing the first Israeli university in the West Bank," according to an Anadolu News Agency report at Zaman Online.

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May 02, 2005

Sharansky Resigns Over Upcoming Gaza and West Bank Pullout

Natan Sharansky, "Minister of Diaspora and Jerusalem Affairs in the Israeli government, "submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon this morning," according to IsraelInsider. "Sharansky decided to resign in objection to the upcoming Gaza Strip and West Bank pullout and apparently informed the PM of his intention to do so in a meeting during the Passover holiday," the daily magazine said. He's the sixth cabinet member to resign.

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May 01, 2005

Joshua Landis Takes a Look at the Kurdish Problem in Syria

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment.Com comments on the the Roots of the Kurdish Problem in Syria. He wrote:

Solving the Kurdish question has become urgent not only because of the glaring inequality the stateless Kurds in Syria, but because of the radical changes to the status of the Kurds in neighboring Iraq and Turkey. Syria has always been able to boast that it treated its Kurds better than its neighbors did. That boast is now hollow. In the future, Syria's Kurds of the North-East will no longer be content to submit to the deprivations of old. The riots of last spring testify to this.

He said, "If Syrians want the loyalty of the Kurds, they must accord them equal respect and rights. The plight of the stateless Kurds has long been a stain on Syria's claim to treat its people with equality and dignity regardless of ethnic or religious background." Here more of his insightful article.

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April 27, 2005

What Syria's Withdrawal from Lebanon Means for Syrians

Joshua Landis, Syria Comment.Com: "Yesterday was a day of celebration in Lebanon: 29 years of military occupation by Syria came to an end. Although the Lebanese and world press covered the story in detail, Syrians largely ignored the fanfare. It was not a proud day in Syria. In fact the Baath newspaper included no story about Lebanon on its front page." I wonder why? Read more of "Syria's Withdrawal from Lebanon Means More Internal Change." for an interesting analysis on what the pullout means for Lebanon and Syria.

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April 26, 2005

Israel and Lebanon After Syria's Withdrawal

Jessy Chahine of The Daily Star of Lebanon reported April 26, 2005 that, "as the head of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon packed to leave with his country's remaining troops Monday night, Israel expressed hope the withdrawal would pave the way to peace with Beirut. "We hope such withdrawal will open the path to peace with Lebanon with whom we have no territorial conflict," the paper quoted Israeli Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom as saying.

The Star said the Israeli official added: "We are not entirely sure that the Syrians ... have withdrawn their intelligence services." It's almost certain that both Israeli and Syrian intelligence agents are still in Lebanon. As People's Daily notes, "Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and set up a so-called security zone in south Lebanon in 1985." Hezbollah forced Israel out of the South in 2000. The israelis occupied the country for 22 years. Here's more.

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April 24, 2005

Syrian Baath Party Reportedly Will Dissolve its National Leadership

Joshua Landis at Syria Comments.Com has posted an informative commentary on an article that appeared in Arabic at al-Sharq al-Awsat headlined "The Baath Will Dissolve its National Leadership and Drop the word "Socialism" from the Party Name." This "is going to happen at the 10th meeting of the Regional Leadership due to be held next month," according to Mr. Landis, citing Ayman Abdulnour as "the main source for the article. As a party member and one of the best informed Syrians around, he should know," Mr. Landis added.

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April 21, 2005

Does West Try to Shape Middle East for its Own Interests?

Ahmed Janabi at Aljazeera.Net raised interesting points in a recent article headlined "Arab world and a conspiracy to control." He said "recent UN resolutions dealing with the Arab world have triggered the old debate in the Arab world about whether the west deliberately conspires to hinder progress in the region for its own interest." The debate is legitimate although it is often dismissed in the West. I recommend Mr. Janabi's article.

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April 16, 2005

Is Najib Al-Miqati Pro-Syrian?

Sasa at The Syrian News Wire describes Najib Al-Miqati, "who was nominated by the opposition" to be Lebanon's new Prime minister, as "still quite pro-Syrian. He's seen as the perfect uniting figure to lead Lebanon into May's elections: he is the opposition's favorite as well as being quite close to Syria," Sasa writes, adding: "He was chosen at the expense of Syrian puppet Al-Murad (the former Defense Minister)." Here's more.

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April 03, 2005

Joshua Landis' 'Travel to the Syrian Coast'

I found "Travel to the Syrian Coast," a post by Joshua Landis over at Syria Comment, to be an enjoyable read. I recommend it for the description it provides of a part of Syria.

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Will Political Upheaval in Lebanon Lead to Another Civil War?

Liz Sly in a Knight Ridder Tribune News dispatch from Beirut reports that, "The bright new Lebanon heralded by the much-vaunted Cedar Revolution is starting to feel ominously like the bad old Lebanon of the bitter past." Hopefully, the country will not return to civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 1990. Here's more.

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March 25, 2005

Report on Hariri Assassination Delayed

Majdoline Hatoum , a staff writer for The Daily Star of Lebanon, noted in a report in the paper's March 25, 2005 edition that, "UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has delayed the release of a UN report into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and failed to indicate when it would be made public.

"The decision by Annan came as Lebanese President Emile Lahoud said he "might" appeal to the international community to help "unveil the truth" about Hariri's murder against a backdrop of a series of bombings near Beirut in the last week which have left three people dead," Ms. Hatoum wrote. She said Mr. Annan "received the report into Hariri's death yesterday [March 24, 2005] from the UN fact-finding mission to Lebanon, led by Irish Deputy Police Commissioner Peter Fitzgerald.

Mr. Fitzgerald "was due to deliver the report to the UN Security Council last night, but decided to postpone the move at the last minute," The Daily Star noted, adding that, "a UN spokesperson in New York said: "The Secretary General just wanted a little bit more time to prepare the ground for this report." Here's more of the Hatoum Report.

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March 22, 2005

Arab League Holds Summit in Algiers

"Arab leaders open a two-day summit in the Algerian capital on Tuesday [March 22, 2005] to discuss a 17-point agenda, including a resolution to revive a plan for peace with Israel that the Jewish state rejected three years ago," according to an Agence France Presse (AFP) report in Khaleej Times. The report said "Only 14 Arab heads of state or rulers out of the 22-member Arab League are expected to attend the summit, which coincides with the 60th anniversary of the pan-Arab organization." The league is one of the least influential organizations on the diplomatic scene.

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March 05, 2005

Syria to Withdraw Forces in Lebanon to the Syrian Border

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria announced in an eagerly anticipated statement on March 5, 2005 that "As an extension of measures already taken ... we will withdraw our forces stationed in Lebanon to the Bekaa Valley and then to the border with Syria."

"I have agreed with (Lebanese) President Emile Lahoud that the Supreme Council on Security should meet this week to approve the withdrawal plan and then we will have fulfilled our obligations under the Taif accord and under Resolution 1559," he told Syria's Peoples Assembly, according to Reuters.

After the February 14, 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, Syria came under intense international pressure to withdraw it's troops from Lebanon. Some observers blame Syria for the assassination. However, no hard evidence has been produced that links Syria to the hit. Read more here.

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David Hirst Sees 'The Shadow of Another Iraq'

On March 4, 2005, The Guardian's David Hirst, writing from Damascus, the Syrian capital, asked if the world was seeing "a velvet revolution, Ukrainian style, that will set an example for the whole Middle East? That is how Lebanon's so far peaceful "democratic uprising" likes to see itself. Certainly, something new and profound is under way." Here's more of Mr. Hirst's analysis.

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Larger Questions Revolve Around Syria and Lebanon

Joshua Landis at Syria Comment today said everyone in Damascus, the Syrian capital, is waiting for President Bashar Assad's "6:00 speech to the Peoples Assembly with baited breath." He said Syria is a country "not only in a region[al] struggle for control of Lebanon, but it has been swept into a much larger philosophical struggle over the nature of the Middle East. Little Syria has, despite itself, become the axis on which larger world questions may revolve. Are the neoconservatives right? Has President Bush's revolutionary foreign policy based on the use of force to create the liniments of democracy been vindicated? Is his strategy for remaking the larger Middle East on the verge of fulfillment?" Read more of Mr. Landis' analysis.

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March 01, 2005

BBC: Beirut Drama Dominates Arab Media

The BBC reported today that "newspapers in Lebanon have greeted the fall of the government on Monday [February 28, 2005] as a historic moment and proof of people power on the streets of Lebanon." How does other publications in the region view developments? Here's more.

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February 27, 2005

Lebanon's Daily Star Says 'Hariri's Case Gathering Momentum'

Leila Hatoum, of staff reporter for The Daily Star of Lebanon, reported February 28, 2005 that "Saudi leaders will be seeking information about the slaying of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri when Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa visits the kingdom." She quoted an anonymous Saudi official as saying:

We cannot accuse Syria or Syrian security services of orchestrating Hariri's murder as there is no proof. But we hope Syria will have information about the murder, given its military and security presence in Lebanon and we hope the Syrian foreign minister will brief us on the information available to his government.

Meanwhile, Ms. Hatoum reported, "Sidon MP Bahia Hariri, the sister of Mr. Hariri, said "Before the arrival of the UN team [investigating Mr. Hariri's assassination], all we heard were accusations and speeches aimed at tampering with people's minds. But the Lebanese are smart and they will not fall into calls of sedition," she opined. Here's more of the story.

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Some Reporters in Syria Told They're Not Being Responsible

Here is another significant report from Joshua Landis' informative Syrian Comment blog:

Syria reporters are getting their hands smacked here for the first time in years. The AP reporter wrote up the story on the Islamic Jihad attack in Israel. He got a call from the Islamic Jihad office here in Damascus taking responsibility for the bombing in Tel Aviv. Six hours later, the same person called him back and denied that Islamic Jihad was responsible. Too late, the reporter had already filed. Then the Syrian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Bushra Kanafani called and chewed out the AP reporter. She said that as a “muwatin Souri” or Syrian citizen he was not being responsible for filing the report.

Mr. Landis said "the same call came to another Syrian reporter I spoke to concerning an article he had written in an Arabic paper on Friday about chaos in the foreign ministry and how Syria could not get its story straight." Here's more on this interesting development.

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Why Did Syria Hand Saddam's Brother Over to the U.S.?

University of Oklahoma Assistant Professor Joshua Landis, who is studying on a Filbright Scholarship in Syria and Lebanon, and writes the insighful Syria Comment blog, asked on February 27, 2005: Is Syria helping the US in Iraq?

The question was provoked by the announcement that "Sabawi Ibrahim Hasan, a half brother of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, has been captured." Mr. Landis added:

One reporter told me: "I am told that the Syrians effectively handed him over to the Americans, either by kicking him out and telling the Americans, or informing the Americans where he was in Iraq."

"I am also told that there might be more examples of this in the near future and that some of the senior baathists in Syria will begin leaving the country for safer destinations."

It is interesting what individuals and nations will do to curry favor with a bigger power, in hopes of abating a threat from that power. There must be quite a few nervous Iraqis in Syria today.

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February 26, 2005

The London Conference on Palestine Starts March 1

On March 1, 2005, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw will chair an international conference in London designed to create Palestinian Authority institutions that will suit the west in a future, Palestinian state although the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office described it this way:

The central aim of the London Meeting is to help the Palestinian leadership strengthen the institutions of the Palestinian Authority. In doing so the UK and the international community will work to support Palestinian efforts to prepare for the anticipated Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank Strong institutions of governance, a more effective security apparatus and renewed economic development should enable the Palestinian Authority to build on the opportunity of these withdrawals and ensure they deliver real benefits to the Palestinian people.

The conference, which will attract Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, suggest that the west may be ready for a Palestinian state to emerge, 56-years after Western nations, especially Britain, gave the ok for the creation of Israel. Israel, by agreement, will not have an official representative at the conference

However, Haaretz analyst Aluf Benn reported February 26, 2005, that Israel will "receive backing for its position that the upcoming London conference, which is scheduled to convene this Tuesday for the purpose of strengthening the PA, should intensify demands on [Palestinian leader Mahmoud] Abbas to combat terrorism.

"Following the conference, the American security coordinator, General William Ward, will come to the region. His task will be to oversee Palestinian security forces as well as try to prevent Israeli responses that can derail the process," Mr. Benn wrote. Read his "Analysis: Israel likely to apply diplomatic pressure on PA."

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February 25, 2005

Daily Star Columnist: 'Syria May be Closing its Arab Door'

Michael Young, staff writer for The Daily Star of Lebanon, opined on February 24, 2005 that, "No sooner had Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa announced on Monday [February 21, 2005] afternoon that Syrian President Bashar Assad agreed to withdraw his army from Lebanon, than the Syrians issued a clarifying statement. Moussa had misunderstood; Syria had only meant a redeployment inside Lebanon, not a withdrawal."

Furthermore, Mr. Young asserted, "On a day when U.S. President George W. Bush demanded that Syria "end its occupation of Lebanon"; that Bush and French President Jacques Chirac issued the same instructions, and set a May deadline for the pullout; that Moussa traveled to Damascus to effectively save the Syrian regime from itself by offering a negotiated way out of its Lebanese impasse; and that tens of thousands of people marched in the streets of Beirut demanding that Syrian forces leave their country; on that day, Assad chose to again embrace the politics of the ostrich by sticking his head in a hole and discounting the world around him." If Syria is not careful, she will be isolated even by Arab Governments. Read more of Mr. Young's insightful analyis.

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Blogger in Syria Says Cracks Are Beginning to Form

Professor Joshua Landis in his always informative Syria Comment blog reported February 24, 2005 that:

The squeeze has been placed on Syria, and cracks are beginning to form in the ordinarily stolid constitution of a people accustomed to disappointment and hardship. Everyone wants to criticize the government as their anxiety overflows the lip of well practiced patience. With a minimum of prodding, one gets a flood of complaint. The leadership has led the country into a blind alley. It will be the people who pay the exit price.

Everything turns on European sanctions. Unlike the US, Europe is Syria’s major trading partner. Sixty per cent of Syrian trade is with European states. France has already called for sanctions. Will Germany and Britain follow suit? If Germany and Britain agree to join an economic embargo of Syria, the entire EU will be pulled behind them, whether they like it or not. Spain and Greece, the states which have traditionally been most outspoken in Syria’s defense, will be mute.

Mr. Landis believes "the European powers will look for ways to stop the sanctions train before it leaves the station." Here's more.

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February 23, 2005

Reuters Analyst: Syria Thrown off Balance by Hariri Assassination

Reuters analyst Alistair Lyon, writing from London, noted on February 23, 2005 that, "Syria still appears to be groping for an adequate response to the assassination of a former ally in Lebanon and the political firestorm it has touched off."

"Many Lebanese have blamed Syria" for the February 14, 2005 "killing of ex-Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, a Sunni Muslim billionaire who symbolized Lebanon's efforts to recover from civil war," said.

"The outcry may have thrown Syrian leaders off balance, but their instincts will be to cling to their perceived interests in Lebanon, not cut their losses and run," he added based on interviews with foreign affairs analysts. Here's more of Mr. Lyon's thought-provoking analysis.

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Walid Jumblatt: Lebanon is a Hostage

Across the Bay has great coverage on Syria's troubles in Lebanon. On February 22, 2005, the blog reported on an interview Druze leader Walid Jumblatt gave "to the French "20 minutes." According to Across the Bay, Mr. Jumblatt said Lebanon was a "hostage" and that "its liberation might take years." Here's Across the Bay's report.

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Joshua Landis on 'The Taste of Bitterness in Syria'

Joshua Landis, a University of Oklahoma assistant professor of Middle Eastern Studies who grew up in Beirut and is on a Fullbright Scholarship in in Syria, reported in Syria Comment that Syria is going through a new layer of emotions as a result of the Hariri assassination." Read "The taste of Bitterness in Syria." Mr. Landis does a good job of capturing the mood of the Syrians and the Lebanese. It's ugly in both countries.

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February 20, 2005

Blogger Tells Why He Removed Article 'Disarray in Syrian Rank...'

Joshua Landis, an Assistant Professor of History at the University of Oklahoma and proprietor of the very informative blog Syria Comment, took down his "article "Disarray in Syrian Ranks Leads to Crisis" because a number of Syrian friends here said that "everyone was talking about it" including among university political science departments and that it could cause me trouble.

"More to the point,he added, "some friends believe that it could cause them trouble as well, perhaps earning them a visit to ask about their relationship to me. At worst, I would be asked to leave Syria, but even my wife was anxious and pointed out that it could have repercussions for the family." According to the University of Oklahoma's website, Mr. Lanidis is on leave during 2005 (January to December) and is a Fulbright Scholar living in Damascus and Beirut.
Here's more of his candid rationale for removing the article.

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As Expected, Syria Rejects U.S. Call for Lebanon Pullout

Hala Jaber of The Times Online of London, reporting from Damascus, the Syrian capital, said "Syria has defied American demands to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and to disarm Hezbollah militants, insisting that Israel must first pull out of the Golan Heights.

"The government in Damascus has been under growing pressure from Washington since last week’s assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister and forthright critic of Syria’s military presence in his country," the correspondent wrote, noting that "President George W. Bush recalled the U.S. ambassador to Syria and demanded an international investigation of the killing." The Bush Administration was seeking an pretext for going after Syria and this may be it. Read more here.

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Helena Cobban on 'Lebanon: the Multi-track Version'

Helena Cobban, the editor and publisher of the always informative Just World News, has a highly recommended February 19, 2005 post headlined "Lebanon: the multi-track version." The tracks are:

"Track 1: The facts about the hideous killing of Rafiq Hariri. Track 2: The international "uproar" and rush to judgment. And then, the most fascinating track of all...Track 3: The birth of an inter-sectarian, nonviolent opposition movement in Lebanon. This is such great news!" she says about Track 3.Click here to read why.

Ms. Cobban's post should help readers understand some of the intricacies of Lebanese politics and the various factions that have vied for leadership in Lebanon for decades, if not centuries. I have read her work since the 1974, when she began working as a journalist in the Middle East. She was there from 1974 to 1981, and was last in Beirut "for just over two months" in "October, November, and a tiny part of December," 2004. For years, I've considered her and Eric Rouleau, the former French diplomat and Middle East correspondent for the French newspaper LeMonde, and now special correspondent for LeMonde Diplomatique, to be the most informed and authoritative western journalists reporting on and analyzing Middle East Affairs.

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February 18, 2005

Foreign Dispatches' Take on the Assasination of Rafik Hariri

Foreign Dispatches has an interesting take on the recent assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. It's headlined "Who Killed Hariri?" Foreign Dispatches points the finger at Syria.

Since the assassination, I've wondered whether Syrian President Bashar al-Asad would be foolish enough to order the asassination. I have my doubts. I can, however, imagine Syrian intelligence involved in an operation of this nature.

I also think that if an anti-Syria Lebanese official or a foreign power wanted to induce the U.S. to attack Syria, or tighten sanctions as a means of forcing Syria out of Lebanon, all they'd have to do is assassinate a Lebanese leader. Fingers will automatically point to Syria. Finally, I, like most commentators, have no proof that Syria is guilty or innocent. At this stage, it's all speculation.

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February 17, 2005

Dobbins on 'Winning the Unwinnable War' in Iraq

James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation, maintains in the January/February 2005 edition of Foreign Affairs that, "The recent American presidential campaign has had the perverse effect of postponing any serious national debate on the future U.S. course in Iraq." He contends:

Electoral considerations placed a premium on consistency at the expense of common sense, with both candidates insisting that even with perfect hindsight they would have acted just as they did two years ago: going to war or voting to authorize doing so. The campaign also revealed the paucity of good options now before the United States. Keeping U.S. troops in Iraq will only provoke fiercer and more widespread resistance, but withdrawing them too soon could spark a civil war. The second administration of George W. Bush seems to be left with the choice between making things worse slowly or quickly.

If Mr. Dobbins had published his critique in a blog, instead of Foreign Affairs, he would probably come in for a swarming attack by some conservative bloggers for daring to suggest that the that the Bush Administration's military and political stragey will fail, if the U.S. remains in Iraq. But he is right, and no amount of wishful thinking will change the fact that the Administration will not win the war. Nor will the army it is training to serve as its proxy. That army likely contains many resistance fighters or their collaborators. If even if Iraqi officials invited the U.S. to remain in the country, U.S. troops will never be safe form the suicide bombers an assassins. There will always be some form of resistance and Iraqi nationalism will emerge over time. No Iraqi leader will long-enjoy the support of his people if he is seen as a puppet of a foreign government. Here is more of Iraq: Winning the Unwinnable War.

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The Evidence Isn't in Yet on Syria and the Assassination of Hariri

Gregory Djerejian of the increasingly influential Belgravia Dispatch "hopes that the young and relatively inexperienced Syrian President, Bashar Asad, would not have grotesquely miscalculated so as to allow his mukhabarat to be behind" the February 14, 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. He wrote:

One cannot discount, for instance, that the assassination may have been the handiwork of other interests shrewdly attempting to create a crisis for Damascus. Or that al-Qaeda, acting indepedently, saw fit to kill Hariri for whatever reason. Commenters are invited to chime in with any theories or viewpoints on who may have been behind the vicious car bombing. Suffice it to say, however, that if the evidence ends up leading to Damascus the entire (already difficult) relationship between the U.S. and Syria will be thrown into real crisis. And rightly so. After all, it would be a poor time indeed, to say the least, for Syria to have stoked such potential instability in Lebanon--given also the potential implications for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Iraq, and, of course, throughout the Levant generally. Developing, as they say.

With constant threats from the Bush Administration, who claims that Syria is not doing enough to prevent Muslim fighters from entering Iraq to fight U.S. occupation forces, and Israel, who is constantly testing Mr. Asad, I find it difficult to believe that he would create conditions for an attack on Syria, or the tightening of sanctions. At this point, Syria is a convenient scapegoat because of its long occupation of a portion of Lebanon. Until there is concrete evidence that Syrian agents assassinated Mr. Hariri, on orders from the Syrian government, its anybody's guess as to who committed the crime.

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